Two days after the fair, it’s Halloween, and it’s a Saturday, which hasn’t happened in a while. So we’re doing the thing: everybody to our place, the smoker going since before sunrise, the kids in costumes, and trick-or-treating down our street at dark. If you’re reading this, you’re invited. Text me for the address if you don’t have it. Shirley was going to host a barbecue, GiGi says “need lots of food,” and I’ve been looking for an excuse to run the smoker all day. This is the excuse.
One catch, and it’s a real one: every forecast I can pull says rain Saturday afternoon. So the plan below has a dry version and a wet version, and we’ll know which one we’re on by about noon.
- When Sat, Oct 31Halloween on a Saturday
- Where Our placeGlendale, text for the address
- Smoker on 6:00 AMCostco pork shoulder, maybe ribs
- We eat 4:00 PMbefore the rain, if it comes
- Trick-or-treat 5:45 PMsunset is 5:37
- Rain odds ~70%showers after 4, says everybody
👪 The Crew
Open invite. These are the people who were in the chat this morning, plus a card for anybody else. Nobody’s confirmed yet, so every card says “Invited.” They flip as the chat does.
- Me + CharlotteHosting
I’m on the smoker from six. Charlotte’s on costume, candy bowl, and quality control. Her costume is still a secret, mostly from me.
- Me: smoker
- Charlotte: costume TBD
- GiGi, Sammy + NathanInvited!
“Need lots of food, not sure how much trick or treating we will get to do.” The food part is handled. The trick-or-treating is optional, and the candy trade on the floor afterward is not.
- GiGi: a side
- Sammy + Nathan: costumes
- Uncle Joby, Shirley + ElenaInvited!
Shirley was going to do a barbecue at their place, so this is me stealing her idea and adding a smoker. “I have a lil space in my car but not much,” so GiGi’s crew may need a ride. We’ll sort it in the chat.
- Shirley: a side
- Elena: costume
- Steven, Rachael + RyhaInvited!
Ryha skipped the fair, so this is her night. A two-year-old in a costume with a bucket is the whole point of Halloween.
- Ryha: costume + bucket
- You?Invited!
Anybody else who wants a plate of smoked pork and a neighborhood to walk with the kids: text me. Costumes encouraged for grown-ups, not required. The smoker doesn’t care.
- Bring: a side, a chair, a rain jacket
The whole plan, in stickers. Note the umbrella.
🔥 The Smoker
The main event, as far as I’m concerned. I want the smoker running all day, which means picking a cut that’s forgiving when the schedule slides. Three options, one pick.
- ~10 hrsPork shoulderThe pick
An 8 to 9 pound bone-in butt at 250°. On by 6:30, wrapped around 1:00 when it stalls, pulled at 203° around 3:00, rests in a cooler until we eat. Feeds fifteen. Forgiving if it runs long. Sandwiches, slaw, buns.
- ~6 hrsSt. Louis ribsIf there's room
Two racks on at 10:00, 3-2-1 method, done at 4:00 on the nose. Good for the kids who won’t touch a sandwich. Also the first thing to go.
- ~14 hrsBrisketNot this time
Would mean lighting the smoker at 2 AM and babysitting it through a rainy afternoon on a day that already has a parade of kids in it. Saving this for a weekend with no plans and no weather.
- PotluckThe sides tableEverybody
GiGi said “need lots of food,” so: everybody brings one thing. Slaw, beans, mac and cheese, a dessert, chips. Claim one in the chat so we don’t get four bags of chips.
Rain and the smoker. The smoker holds temperature fine in a shower; it’s the cook who gets wet, and the lid that can’t be opened in a downpour. The pork gets wrapped by one o’clock either way, and once it’s wrapped it can finish in the oven if the sky opens up. That’s the whole rain plan for the meat: wrap early, oven as backup, nobody notices.
Sides, claimed so far:
- Slaw (for the sandwiches)
- Beans
- Mac and cheese (the kids’ vote)
- Something green that nobody will eat
- A dessert that isn’t candy
- Buns, pickles, sauce (me)
🍬 Trick-or-Treating
Sunset is 5:37. Our street gets going right at dark and is done by about 7:30, so the window is tight and it’s the same window every forecast puts the rain in.
Dry version: out the door at 5:45 with buckets and one flashlight per kid, the loop around our block and the next one, back by 7:15 for the candy trade on the living room floor. Grown-ups walk, one stays at the house with the bowl.
Wet version: if it’s actually raining at 5:45, we wait it out for half an hour, and if it’s still going we do it in the garage and the driveway: everybody parks nose-in, trunks open, candy from each car, which is a trunk-or-treat with a smoker ten feet away. The kids will not mind. The kids will think it’s better.
Either version: costumes on by 5:00 so there’s time for pictures in the light, and the candy bowl on the porch with a sign for the neighborhood kids while we’re out.
🕑 The Day, Hour by Hour
- Act 1: Smoke6:00 AM to 3:00 PM
- 6:00Smoker litCharcoal, a few chunks of pecan or oak, bring it to 250°. Coffee.
- 6:30Pork onRubbed the night before. Fat cap up. Then leave it alone, which is the hard part.
- 10:00Ribs onIf there’s a second rack free. Three hours bare, two wrapped, one sauced.
- 12:00Weather calldry or wetCheck the radar. This decides whether the tables go in the yard or the garage.
- 1:00Wrap the porkIt’ll stall around 160°. Butcher paper, back on, or into the oven if it’s raining sideways.
- 3:00Pork off, into the cooler203° and the bone wiggles. Wrapped in towels in a cooler, it holds for hours. People start showing up about now.
- Act 2: Everybody3:00 to 9:00 PM
- 3:30Crew landsChairs out, sides on the table, kids in the yard while it’s still dry.
- 4:00We eatpulled porkPull the pork, ribs off, sandwiches built. Eating at four on purpose: before the rain and before the costumes go on.
- 5:00Costumes on, picturesWhile there’s light. The group shot goes on the porch steps with the pumpkins.
- 5:45Trick-or-treatdry or wetOut the door at first dark, or into the garage for trunk-or-treat if the sky says so.
- 7:15The candy tradeLiving room floor, every bucket dumped, cousins negotiating. This is the best twenty minutes of Halloween and it isn’t close.
- 8:00Fire pit or movieDry: fire pit and the leftover ribs. Wet: Hocus Pocus on the couch and the leftover ribs.
- 9:00WrapSunday’s open. Nobody has to leave early. The pork’s in the fridge for anybody who wants a plate for the road.
🌤️ Weather Outlook
Halloween forecast: Saturday, Oct 31
See the numbers
| Hour | NWS | GFS | ECMWF | ICON | GEM | Typical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 AM | 75° | 72° | 71° | 73° | 70° | 75° |
| 12 AM | 76° | 72° | 73° | 76° | 71° | 78° |
| 1 PM | 76° | 74° | 74° | 76° | 72° | 80° |
| 2 PM | 76° | 75° | 74° | 77° | 74° | 81° |
| 3 PM | 77° | 75° | 74° | 77° | 72° | 82° |
| 4 PM | 78° | 75° | 73° | 77° | 72° | 81° |
| 5 PM | 77° | 76° | 72° | 75° | 70° | 79° |
| 6 PM | 76° | 76° | 71° | 72° | 68° | 76° |
| 7 PM | 73° | 76° | 70° | 70° | 67° | 74° |
| 8 PM | 71° | 76° | 68° | 69° | 66° | 72° |
| 9 PM | 70° | 75° | 66° | 69° | 65° | 69° |
| Rain chance | 62% | 66% | 78% | 68% | 67% |
Five sources, and all five say the same thing: a cooler-than-usual Saturday with rain coming in the afternoon. The National Weather Service has “showers and thunderstorms likely” from 4 PM on, and the four models put the chance between 62 and 78 percent, with a quarter inch or so if it comes. The high is 75 to 78, against a typical 82 for the date, and the evening drops to the high 60s. For Phoenix on Halloween that’s a hoodie night.
So: eat at four, costumes at five, and watch the radar at noon. I’ll re-pull this chart Friday night and again Saturday morning. If the rain moves to the evening, the timeline above moves with it.
🎒 What to Bring
- A side or a dessert. Claim it in the chat.
- Chairs. We have some, not enough for everybody.
- Costumes and buckets for the kids, and a flashlight each.
- A rain jacket or an umbrella. Not kidding this time.
- A bag of candy if you want to help with the porch bowl. Our street goes through a lot.
- A hoodie. High 60s after dark, and wet.
✅ Still to Lock In
- The date. Saturday, Oct 31. Halloween doesn’t move.
- The main. Pork shoulder. Ribs if there’s room on the grate.
- The headcount. Everybody’s invited, nobody’s confirmed. Text me.
- Sides. Claim one in the chat.
- Rides. Joby’s car is tight; who’s picking up GiGi’s crew?
- Charlotte’s costume. Classified.
- The rain call. Noon Saturday, off the radar.
- Buy the pork. Costco run Friday, after the fall party and the early release. Whatever size butt they’ve got.
Rain or not, the smoker’s lit at six. If the storm shows up at four, fine, it can be the party pooper. We’ll be in the garage with the ribs.
